University of Kentucky basketball fans are Mel Gibson, Conspiracy Theory, tin foil hat crazy. This was never more clearly displayed than after the yearly release of the MOCK NCAA Tournament bracket on Friday. A quick Twitter search of “#mock” following the bracket release, created by media members with NCAA guidance, revealed a level of crazy that is unique to Big Blue Nation. Wildcat fans flocked to Twitter to complain about how unfair the “committee” was to UK because of it’s difficult FAKE path to New Orleans. As always, paranoid fans of the Cats were also concerned with how easy the “committee” made the FICTITIOUS road for Duke among other teams. The fact 2-seed North Carolina was placed in Kentucky’s IMAGINARY South Regional despite being higher on the MOCK S-Curve while 2-seed Duke, lower on the S-Curve, was placed in the PSEUDO East Regional with Syracuse caused Wildcat fans to blow their tops. This level of fanaticism is over the top, but it does raise a larger question about the actual NCAA Tournament Selection Committee and the process used to select the teams and how those teams are placed in the bracket.
Following the release of the Mock Media Bracket on Friday I had a lively conversation with a co-worker, who happens to be a Kentucky fan, about the bracket and how unfair it was to Kentucky. After seeing the complete listing of all 68 teams(essentially the S-Curve), “Rob” was incensed that overall 8-seed Duke wasn’t assigned to overall 1-seed Kentucky in the Atlanta Regional, instead a potential rematch of the season’s best game with UNC was in the offing. A quick look at the S-Curve reveals some potential pitfalls for the committee when applying their bracketing procedures.
True S-Curve
ATLANTA
|
BOSTON
|
SAINT LOUIS
|
PHOENIX
|
Kentucky
|
Syracuse
|
Missouri
|
Ohio State
|
Duke
|
Kansas
|
North Carolina
|
Michigan State
|
Baylor
|
Marquette
|
Indiana
|
Georgetown
|
Wichita State
|
Louisville
|
UNLV
|
Michigan
|
34
|
34
|
34
|
34
|
Three Big Ten teams in the Phoenix, three Big East teams in Boston, a tournament rematch of Duke & Baylor, all NCAA no-no’s. Because of this, teams need to be moved along the seed lines, causing adjustments to the true S-Curve. As the overall 5-seed Michigan State gets preferred treatment when moved, this would be to Saint Louis. That’s the easy one in this bracket, it gets tricky after that. When considering UNC (and other teams on the top four lines); at what point does fair to the Tar Heels become unfair to the team above them; and even further, how much difference is there between the teams on each seed line? Is it fair to Kentucky to accommodate North Carolina with a regional location closer to home? Is it fair to North Carolina by keeping Duke closer to home in Atlanta despite being lower on the S-Curve? In the end, the media moved North Carolina to Atlanta, Duke to Boston, and Kansas to Phoenix. The top four lines in the Media Bracket are relatively balanced (see below), but the discrepancy between Boston/Phoenix and Atlanta is probably a little high for the real committee’s liking. Switching North Carolina and Duke creates a more equally balanced S-Curve for bracketing purposes, but still, is it fair?
The Media’s Top 4 Lines
ATLANTA
|
BOSTON
|
SAINT LOUIS
|
PHOENIX
|
Kentucky
|
Syracuse
|
Missouri
|
Ohio State
|
North Carolina
|
Duke
|
Michigan State
|
Kansas
|
Baylor
|
Indiana
|
Marquette
|
Georgetown
|
Louisville
|
Wichita State
|
Michigan
|
UNLV
|
31
|
37
|
32
|
37
|
Switching UNC & Duke
ATLANTA
|
BOSTON
|
SAINT LOUIS
|
PHOENIX
|
Kentucky
|
Syracuse
|
Missouri
|
Ohio State
|
Duke
|
North Carolina
|
Michigan State
|
Kansas
|
Baylor
|
Indiana
|
Marquette
|
Georgetown
|
Louisville
|
Wichita State
|
Michigan
|
UNLV
|
33
|
35
|
32
|
37
|
To answer this question I posed a purely hypothetical scenario to “Rob,” and in true Big Blue Nation style he held true to his persecuted beliefs. In this hypothetical S-Curve, he, allegedly, still wanted a true and immovable S-Curve.
DETROIT
|
BOSTON
|
TAMPA
|
SEATTLE
|
Kentucky
|
Duke
|
North Carolina
|
UCLA
|
Michigan State
|
Georgetown
|
Florida
|
Gonzaga
|
Kansas
|
Indiana
|
Missouri
|
Texas
|
Marquette
|
Syracuse
|
Ohio State
|
Louisville
|
In this extremely hypothetical situation there are three potentially unfair match-ups for number one seeds. Kentucky versus Michigan State at Ford Field, North Carolina versus Florida at Tropicana Field and UCLA versus Gonzaga at the new arena in Seattle. Logic would dictate that, as the number one overall seed, Kentucky should be given as many advantages as possible, but is playing, what could amount to a road game, with a spot in the Final Four on the line fair to Kentucky, even if it’s what the S-Curve dictates? “Rob” says yes, because Michigan State is the lowest ranked team according to the committee. Now let’s move to North Carolina and UCLA, also number one seeds. Gainesville is 130 miles from Tampa, Chapel Hill is 680 miles from Tampa. Eleven hundred miles from Pauley Pavilion to Seattle. Two hundred eighty miles from Spokane to Seattle. Three number one seeds, three potential road games. Three justifiable situations for playing with the S-Curve, if you accept the argument that these games would be more unfair to Kentucky, UNC & UCLA than playing games against a team that is not the true opponent from the S-Curve.
DETROIT
|
BOSTON
|
TAMPA
|
SEATTLE
|
Kentucky
|
Duke
|
North Carolina
|
UCLA
|
Gonzaga
|
Florida
|
Georgetown
|
Michigan State
|
Missouri
|
Indiana
|
Texas
|
Kansas
|
Syracuse
|
Marquette
|
Louisville
|
Ohio State
|
32
|
34
|
35
|
35
|
This balanced bracket eliminates any unfair advantages for lower seeds in potential games versus higher seeds, but it does move around teams on the S-Curve creating theoretically more difficult games for the higher seeds, but in friendlier conditions. After watching the 2009 Final Four at Ford Field and how the city of Detroit supported the Spartans, Kentucky can’t be too upset with the potential match-ups in the hypothetical bracket, but when I presented this situation to “Rob,” he said he wanted Kentucky to play the easiest team possible and location didn't matter. I have a feeling Coach Calipari, despite his sizeable ego and bravado, would disagree wholeheartedly.
There is no perfect bracket, just ask Kentucky fans, but the tournament selection committee (and the media) have set up criteria for the bracketing procedure and have to stick by those rules. Because of this, teams will be moved and higher seeds will play teams that are deemed “better” by the committee because of it; but they also won’t play road games in a tournament that is set up to be 67 neutral site games...unless Dayton makes the First Four.
